• Libya 2-2 Zambia

Libya kept alive hopes of an Africa Cup of Nations fairytale final by holding Zambia to 2-2 in their Group A match.

Ahmed Saad scored twice for the north Africans, who overcame the obstacle of last year's civil war to qualify for the tournament being co-hosted by Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

It was the first point for Libya, who must now beat Senegal in their final match at the weekend to have any chance of progressing to the last eight. Libya lost to Equatorial Guinea in the opening game last Saturday.

"We'll see what chance we have but that we will try to win at all costs is sure," said Libya's only Europe-based player, Djamal Abdallah of the Portuguese club Braga.

The decision to go ahead with the match on a virtually unplayable pitch, after a heavy downpour delayed kick-off by more than an hour, was heavily criticised by both teams. "The players could have been badly injured. We should not have started," Abdallah said.

It was a sentiment shared by the Zambia captain, Chris Katongo. "The conditions were really bad and very difficult to play in. We had to resort to ping-pong football and that is not our style," he said in a reference to both teams having to keep the ball in the air to get forward momentum.

Workers cleared puddles of water before kick off and a machine to soak up the liquid was brought on during the halftime break but even then the two sides battled through a punishing mud bath.

Saad scored first for Libya after four minutes, slotting in from the left after breaking clear of the defence.

Zambia immediately hit back with Emmanuel Mayuka getting on to the end of a cross from Rainsford Kalaba to equalise in the 29th minute. It was his second goal of the tournament.

Saad took advantage of a defensive slip to restore Libya's lead just after the break but again Libya's lead did not last long with Katongo finishing from close range after a bicycle-kick pass from Mayuka. "It was good to score again and it came at the right time," Katongo said.

The heavy pitch saw the teams tire near the end but Zambia might have snatched victory in stoppage time as the Libyans cleared desperately under severe pressure.

• Equatorial Guinea 0-1 Zambia

Zambia beat already-qualified Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday to finish in first place in Group A and join the co-hosts in the quarter-finals.

Christopher Katongo scored the winning goal in the 67th minute at the Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, as Equatorial Guinea's unexpected run of two opening victories came to an end.

"Our strategy was to go into the second round," Katongo said. "Whoever we meet it's not our problem. We have to concentrate on our own tactics and what the coach wants us to do."

The result meant that unbeaten Zambia won the group and Equatorial Guinea finished in second place and are likely to face the cup favourites, Ivory Coast, in the last eight.

The scoreline also eliminated Libya, despite their surprise 2-1 win against Senegal. Libya needed to win their game and Equatorial Guinea to beat Zambia to have any chance of progressing.

"Maybe it's a surprise for some people but we came to finish first," the Zambia coach, Hervé Renard, said. "Maybe it was a difficult target but the players respected everything perfectly today."

Zambia finished with seven points after two wins and a draw, a point ahead of Equatorial Guinea. Ivory Coast are expected to clinch first place in Group B when they play Angola on Monday, which would set them to meet the co-hosts in the last eight.

"It's only one defeat. We have to correct the mistakes for the next match and see the future optimistically," said the Equatorial Guinea coach, Gilson Paulo.

• Zambia 3-0 Sudan

Zambia reached their first Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals in 16 years after a clinical 3-0 win over struggling 10-man Sudan.

Stophira Sunzu headed in from a free-kick in the 15th minute and Christopher Katongo made it 2-0 in the 66th when he scored from the rebound after his penalty was saved. The substitute James Chamanga sealed Zambia's dominance in the 86th with a curling shot from the edge of the area that went in off the post.

Sudan's hopes of an upset slipped away when the defender Saif Eldin Ali Idris was sent off in the 65th minute for a reckless foul on Rainford Kalaba that led to Katongo's penalty. By then the Sudanese had already been forced into two first-half substitutions because of injury before Ali Idris went for his second bookable offense.

Zambia could have won by an even bigger margin but the Sudan goalkeeper Akram El Hadi Salem, who had a busy night, dived full length to his right to save a stoppage-time effort that appeared destined for the net.

Sunzu rose high at the near post to beat Akram for the opener after a free kick out wide from Isaac Chansa. Katongo hit his right-footed penalty straight at Akram, who save it one-handed, but the Zambia captain followed up to poke home with his left foot for 2-0.

Chamanga's goal was the pick of the three as he controlled neatly and sent a curling right-footed effort toward the far corner that was too good for Akram.

Before the match, both sets of players and officials observed a minute's silence in a mark of respect for the more than 70 people killed at a football riot in Egypt this week. Zambia will play the winner of Ghana v Tunisia.

The Zambia team facing Ghana in the Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals has been almost six years in the planning, with Kalusha Bwalya the main architect

Look at all that is good about Zambian football and you will see the hand of Kalusha Bwalya. He scored a hat-trick when Zambia beat Italy at the 1988 Olympics. After the air-crash of 1993 had wiped out almost the entire team, he was the rallying point the new side was built around. And, as Zambia look to reach their first Cup of Nations final since that remarkable renaissance side of 1994 in Wednesday's semi-final against Ghana, it is Kalusha, now president of the football federation, who drew the blueprint.

This Zambia has been almost six years in the planning, resulting from the failure to qualify for the 2006 World Cup, when they finished behind Togo and Senegal. "The long plan began with the president Kalusha Bwalya when he was vice-president," the captain Christopher Katongo explained. "He made a plan for four years. He kept the players we had to keep 70-80% of the players to see what we could do.

"That began in 2006 and this is payback. In 2006 when he was the coach, we were eliminated in the first round. In 2008, the same thing, but he was the president and he insisted that we keep this team. Then in 2010, you saw what we did: we went to the next round and we lost to Nigeria."

The group was primarily drawn from the Under-23 and Under-20 sides, and what's telling about Zambia's success is how few of them have gone on to great things individually. Only the centre-forward Emmanuel Mayuka plays for a top-flight European club, and then only for the Swiss side Young Boys. This is absolutely not a golden generation, but rather a squad drawn predominantly from Africa: five of the squad are based at home in Zambia, eight in South Africa and five with the DR Congo giants TP Mazembe while the midfielder Jonas Sakuwaha is with Al-Merreikh in Sudan. Katomgo and James Chamanga play in China and the young midfielder Chisamba Lungu is in the Russian second flight with Ural Sverdlovsk.

This Zambia are a notably tight-knit squad who clearly enjoy each other's company, which is what made it such a shock when the midfield Clifford Mulenga was sent home last week after refusing to apologise for breaking a curfew with two other players (who did apologise and were thus spared). Hervé Renard is clearly popular with his players, but he is a father-figure who is not afraid to impose discipline — a point he emphasised at a press conference on Tuesday, when he reacted to the chaos that marked the end of the English section and the beginning of the French by beating his hand on the table and hissing "DI-SCI-PLINE" while gesturing in mock despair at the scrum by the door.

In that regard, although after his first two years in the job he had a year away with Angola before returning to replace Ivano Bonetti after the qualifiers for this tournament, Renard is reminiscent of Oscar Washington Tabárez who, as Uruguay coach, also forged a squad in 2006, taking them to success at last year's Copa América. For the Uruguayans, team spirit mean not merely that the players liked each other, but that they respected their coach enough immediately to subjugate themselves to his tactical demands. Renard has had a similar impact.

"[The togetherness] helps from a tactical point of view," Katongo said. "For instance with [the rapid left-sided forward Rainford] Kalaba, I know where he's going to run. I know his weaknesses; he knows my weaknesses. I know his strong points. I think it's a good thing that we know each other. We've stayed together for four or five years.

"We have a team unit. We may not have big names but we have a team unit. You just have to look at the way the Senegalese play. Nigeria is not here – why? Cameroon is not here – why? The teamwork is the important thing. You can have 200 million professional players at Chelsea, Barcelona, Inter … but if they can't play together as a team, they can't do anything, they can't win anything. And this is our key point: if we can just play as a team then Ghana are beatable."

It was Senegal, much fancied with their mass of attacking strength, who first discovered just how dangerous Zambia's teamwork can be.

Sitting back and picking Senegal off on the break, Zambia were 2-0 up within 25 minutes of that first game and went on to win comfortably, silencing pre-tournament criticism. "We'd been working on how we would play tactically against Senegal," Katongo explained. "We tried to do this against Namibia, but we drew, and people were saying: 'Oh, you can't score ...' but we were trying tactically how we were going to approach these games. We played against South Africa and drew 1-1, and they said: 'Oh, it's not working,' and stuff like that. But we were planning, we were in a process. And then D-Day came, and we did."

Ghana, meanwhile, have a number of injury concerns. Asamoah Gyan admits he is still "not tip-top", having come into the tournament with a calf problem. Although he maintains he is improving, he needed a break in training to have his ankle strapped. The midfielder Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu did not train at all having suffered a knock against Tunisia in the quarter-final and makes way for Derek Boateng. Also absent is the left-back Al-Hassane who is replaced by Lee Addy, and Jordan Ayew comes in for Sulley Muntari.

The Black Stars themselves are the result of consistency of approach, the coach Goran Stefanovic continuing the approach implemented by his fellow Serbian Milovan Rajevac with almost the same personnel. Long-term planning is hardly a revolutionary concept, but it is rare enough in African football that those who try it, can enjoy great rewards.

• Mayuka comes off bench to send Zambia into final for first time since 1994
• Mweene saves Gyan penalty

Paul will be here from 3.30pm GMT with live, minute-by-minute coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations semi-final between Zambia and Ghana.

If you get here first, here's Jonathan Wilson on the Mali team's plea for peace.

There were a lot of tears in Libreville on Sunday. There were the tears of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, overwhelmed by having missed the decisive penalty in Gabon's shootout defeat to Mali and there were the tears of Seydou Keita as he used his side's progress to the semi-final for the first time in 10 years to highlight the crisis overwhelming his country.

Keita began the tournament fronting an Oxfam campaign to raise awareness of the food crisis sweeping the Sahel after a year of poor rains. His words on Sunday were even more emotive, and came with a ringing immediacy. His face as he stepped up to take the final penalty looked drained, but his nerve remained sure and he converted with a precise, low shot.

The tears then were from Aubameyang, distraught in the centre-circle. He has been one of the players of the tournament, a powerful and mobile forward who had come to embody his country's emergence as possible winners. Sylvia Bongo, the first lady, took to wearing an Aubameyang 9 shirt, as did a lot of the crowd. As he stepped up to take his penalty, his anxiety was obvious; it wasn't an awful shot, but neither was it particularly near the corner and Soumbeila Diakité saved relatively comfortably low to his left.

For the full story, click here.

3.28pm: Hello and welcome to the latest installement of what has been a tremendous tournament so far, full of enterprise and drama. Most folks expect the final to be a repeat of the 1992 showdown, in which Ivory Coast prevailed over Ghana in an epic penalty shoot-out, but Ghana have been somewhat laboured in the tournament so far and it is certainly possible for a slick and clever Zambia side to beat them today (and. of course, Mali could eliminate the Elephants later).

Here are the line-ups:
Zambia: Mweene; Kasonde, Sunzu, Himoonde, Musonda; Nkausu, Sinkala; Chansa, Kalaba; Katongo, Chamanga

Ghana: Kwarasey; Inkoom, Boye, Mensah, Lee Addy; Boateng, Annan; Dede, Asamoah, Jordan; Gyan

3.51pm: Promising start by Matt Smith on ITV: Hervé Renanrd had a spell in Angola as assistant manager so he'll know their players pretty well," suggests Smith, failing to explain why knowledge of Angolan players will help him plot victory over Ghana.

3.53pm: Apparently organisers claimed a crowd of 35,000 was expected at the Estadio de Bata. Instead it looks small than 8,400 that were with me at St Mary's last night to seee Millwall beat Southampton. Less chance of catching frozen extremities down Equatoral Guinea way, though ...

1 min: On a moist pitch the game gets going.

3 min: The duel between Inkoom and Kalaba will be one of the most interesting features of this match and the Zambian has struck the first blow, dispossessing Inkoom before skipping pat two players and sending in a reasonable shot that gets deflected wide. There follows an admirably inventive corner routine which creates a shooting opportunity for Chamanga, who blasts over.

6 min: Kalaba pulls a corner out to the edge of the box, where Chamanga arrives at speed and let fly, but his shot is charged down.

PENALTY to Ghana! Asamoah goes down easily ... and then gets up to take the spotkick himself ... and sees his low sidefooter palmed away by Mweene!

9 min: The Ayew brothers have plenty of space out wide in view of Zambia's qutie narrow formation. But they can go through the middle too, via Gyan, who has just picked his way past two defenders and then fired a low shot from 25 yards that Mweene could only parry.

12 min: Zambia look good going forward but rather panickey at the back. This game promises goals.

14 min: After working a nice opening for Inkoom down the right, the full-back over-hits his cross. Dede Ayew retrieves it and is fouled at the edge of the area. The angle is too acute for a shot so Asamoah scoops it into the centre and Zambia clear.

16 min: Boys may not cry, but Boye might: if Ghana get to the final, he won't play, as he's just got booked for a ludicrous high tackle on Chansa.

19 min: Ghana have taken control of this and Zambia are struggling to get out of their half.

21 min: A glimmer of an opening for Chansa, but Boye closes it off, showing his speed to get to Katongo's through-ball first.

23 min: Dede Andre effortlessly get in behind the Zmabian defence down the right and then pulls the ball back for Gyan, whose attempted shot is diverted by Sinkala.

26 min: Zambia have managed to get a bit of possession over the last few minutes, and though they just went from side to side it will have benefitted them to have had a break from chasing Ghanaians.

30 min: Dede clips a freekick to the back post, where Jordan arrives unmarked but completely misses the ball!

32 min: As they did against Senegal in the first match, Zambia counter-attack brilliantly, with Kalaba tisting cleverly before threading an artful ball through to Katongo ... who, following a well-timed run, is free in front of goal ... but tonkls wide!

36 min: Mweene comes hurtling out of goal to intercept a corner ... but misses entirely. Happily for him, so did Mensah.

38 min: Asamoah's shot from 20 yards is deflected wide by Nkausu.

41 min: Inkoom blasts high and wide after being put free down the right. Given Zambia's counter-attacking prowess, Ghana could be made to pay for their profligacy here.

43 min: Gyan nods wide from 10 yards. Gyan, incidentally, has the number 3 shaved in the side of his head, presumably because that is his jersey number. I wonder if this wheeze of decorating your head with your clothes' number will catch on? Should I tattoo 10 on my forehead in reference to my shoe size? Perhaps I should consider shaving '100% polyster' into my eyebrows to denote my underwear material?

Half-time: Ghana dominated, playing with imaginations and a high tempo, but lacking incision. Zambia look threatning on their rare counter-attacks. The game, then, is finely poised.

46 min: Zambia have made a change, with Mayuka replacing Chamanga. Zambia's counter-attacking potential is thius boosted, as Mayukla is a nimble schemer sort.

49 min: Jordan cuts in from the left and lets fly but can't beat Mweene. Meanwhile, Zambia manager Hervé Renard roars and gesticulates excitedxlty on the sideline, prompting Clive Tyldsley on ITV to suggest: "He looks a bit like Teddy Sheringham and acts a bit like Basil Fawlty." Was wondering how he'd manage to crowbar in a reference to Sheringham. Mention of that night in Barcelona can't be far behind ...

52 min: Yet more errant finishing by Ghana, as Jordan Ayew fails to connect with a fine cross from his brother, and then Boye, improvising quickly, heads over the bar.

55 min: Mayuka raids down the right and sends a low cross tantalisingly close to Kabala, but Boye does well to intervene and prod behind for a corner.

58 min: Dede dispossessed Kabala and the darts into the box, before being crowded out.

61 min: Dede curls a decent freekick into the box and desperate Zambia marking means three Ghanaians challenge for the ball unhindered. Gyan heads at Mweene.

62 min: Boateng booked for foul on Katongo.

65 min: Strong and skilful run by Gyan, culminating with a decent shot that Mweene saves comfortably.

67 min: Good Kalaba cross. Bad Sunzu header.

69 min: Mweene's one weakness seems to be his didginess on crosses. He has just missed another, although his attempt to clasp it was sufficient to prevent Gyan from making a proper connection.

71 min: Ghana change: Mensah off, Vorsah on.

74 min: Gyan has been replaced. "Since we don't get coverage of the ACN in the US, can you tell me which teams you expect to overpay on which players for a few weeks of solid performances during the cup?" asks Todd Landaburu. "Any guess will do...that Katongo fella looks sprightly in the image above." John Boye has been excellent for Ghana in this match as he has been all tournament. Ditto Kalaba (but for Zambia). Tunisia's Youssef Msanki was a tircky delight, and Gabon's Pierre Aubameyang was too.

GOAL! Ghana 0-1 Zambia (Mayuka 77') After all of Ghana's misses, Zambia strike on the counter, with the substitute Mayuka performing a little feint to get away from Boye and make space for a shot and then curling the ball in off the post from the edge of the box!

79 min: This time Mweene does well on a cross, cutting out Dede's delivery.

81 min: Tagoe, the man who came on instead of Gyan, tires to make gfains down the left but Zambia quickly get he ball back and rip forward on another slick counter. But Kalaba's shot lacks the power and precision to disturb Kwarasey.

83 min: Zambia are currently on course for a place in the final in Libreville. The last time they reached the final was in 1994, less than a year after virtually their entire squad was killed in a plane crash off the coast of ... Libreville.

84 min: RED CARD! Like John Mensah against Botswana earlier in the tournament, Boateng has just been sent off for bringing down an opponent to stop a counter-attack, though whether he meant to do it, as opposed to just falling into the player, is unclear.

86 min: Ghana pile men into the box for a corner. But Asamoah's delivery fails to beat the first defender.

87 min: Ghana throw on Sulley Muntari, who has three minutes to atone for a disappointing tournament by him so far.

88 min: Muntari's first contribution is to take a corner. And under-hit it.

89 min: That's a terrific tackle by Himoonde to prevent Inkoom from cutting the ball back to Tagoe after a defensive mistake. Corner to Ghana. Sunzu clears.

90 min: Another heroic block by Zambia as Ghana pile on the pressure! There will be at least four more minutes of this to endure ...

90+3 min: Ghana are not producing enough to get through and Zambia are seeing this out with relative ease.

Full-time: Zambia are into the final for the first time since 1994 and what a superb achievement it has been to get there. They are a slick, spirited and well-organised side and, whether they face Ivory Coast or Mali, have a decent chance of being crowned African champions for the first time. Ghana, meanwhile, are left to mourn wasteful finishing. Poor old ASamoah Gyan has another penalty miss to regret.

Zambia 1-0 Ghana

Emmanuel Mayuka was the hero for Zambia as he came on as a substitute to score the goal that saw them secure a 1-0 win over Ghana in their Africa Cup of Nations semi-final on Wednesday.

The game could have turned out very differently had Asamoah Gyan not missed an eighth-minute penalty for the four-times champions and favourites Ghana.

Ghana dominated the game but struggled to create chances in another empty stadium, a sad hallmark of the tournament in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, on a wet and steamy evening in Bata.

Mayuka, the only member of the Zambian squad playing for a European first division club, scored out of the blue with a shot on the turn on 78 minutes. The Ghana midfielder Derek Boateng was sent off eight minutes from time after a second yellow card.

Zambia will play Mali or Ivory Coast in Sunday's final.

For the final against Ivory Coast, Zambia return to Libreville – the scene of the 1993 disaster that wiped out the national team – having outwitted a complacent Ghana

At the final whistle, John Boye, Samuel Inkoom and Prince Tagoe stood, shirtless and disconsolate on the edge of the pitch, seemingly unable to believe their defeat. With a scream Davies Nkausu hurtled past, carrying a Zambian flag in his outstretched arm. Christopher Katongo wasn't far behind and, as the rest of the squad joined them, they danced delighted in the centre circle.

And so, after their 1-0 win, Zambia head on to Libreville, a city that, for them, stands as plangent as any in the annals of tragedy. It was two minutes after take-off from Libreville that the plane carrying the Zambia team to Senegal for a World Cup qualifier in 1993 exploded, killing all on board. The greatest of all Zambian players, Kalusha Bwalya, survived only because he played for PSV Eindhoven and so was making his own way to the game. He is now the president of the Football Association of Zambia.

"It means a lot," he said on Wednesday night. "We are pleased. Everybody's so happy to be where we are. We thank God every day for the path we have taken, for the direction that we have, but it's the boys who have done it. I think when we go to Libreville that we will get emotional. I think there will be a reconnect before the game with the new team and the old team and hopefully we can end it well on Sunday."

Emotion has been a key part of Zambia's progress. "We could only get to Libreville by reaching the final, so we did it," said their coach, Hervé Renard, a man who just over seven years ago was being sacked by Cambridge United. Now, wearing the white shirt in which he is yet to lose a competitive game in two tournaments (a fateful switch to blue cost Zambia their game against Cameroon two years ago, and he seemingly counts the penalty shootout defeat to Nigeria in the quarter-final as a draw).

"There's something written that we have to go to play to honour the memories of the Zambia national team that died in 1993," Renard went on. "It was catastrophic for the nation. The 12 million people of Zambia are waiting for us to go back to Libreville. Immediately after we arrive, we will go to the place. We just have to think of them and play for them and play for Zambia because it's a fantastic country."

But really, this was another tactical triumph for Renard. He brought in Nkausu for Chisamba Lungu, allowing Francis Kasonde to move from right-back into midfield, so the central pair sat very deep. That meant that even when Asamoah Gyan won knockdowns – which, given how hampered he clearly was by his calf injury, probably wasn't as often as he would have liked – Zambia always had four men around ready to pick up the loose ball. Yes, Zambia had some fortune, not least when Gyan had his eighth-minute penalty saved by Kennedy Mweene, but by and large they restricted Ghana, letting them have the ball and trusting that they wouldn't do anything too dangerous with it.

Lungu came on midway through the second half. By then Ghana were frustrated, with John Mensah and Gyan both struggling. Soon both had gone off. Zambia suddenly had an extra attacking thrust. Rainford Kalaba charged, laid in a pass to Emmanuel Mayuka on the edge of the box and continued his run. John Boye was momentarily distracted, which gave Mayuka just enough space to turn and hook a shot with just enough curve in off the post.

Before the Cup of Nations began, the Ivory Coast coach, François Zahoui, admitted, "We don't respect opponents so we go to each Cup of Nations as favourites and come back disappointed." His response has been to opt for an approach of conservative pragmatism that has carried them to the final on the back of a defence that is yet to concede a goal. Wednesday night's 1-0 win over Mali meant their five games in the tournament have brought nine goals for and none conceded.

Ghana, perhaps, have taken on the Ivorian mantle of underachievement. For the third Cup of Nations in a row they reached the semi-final, and for the third Cup of Nations in a row they go home with nothing. There were happy predictions that having finished third and then second, Ghana would complete their ascent by winning in Libreville on Sunday, but football doesn't dole out trophies just because it's somebody's turn. You wonder, though, whether a sense of entitlement had filtered through to the players, whether confidence became overconfidence.

Perhaps it's unfair to say the players were complacent, but there was certainly a complacency about certain Ghanaian journalists. "When you lose tomorrow," one said to the Zambia coach in the pre-match press conference, "will that still be the highlight of your career?" And then there is the odd antipathy based around the Ghanaian insistence that Renard was only ever a fitness coach and not Claude Le Roy's assistant in his time as coach of Ghana. Technically, in terms of job title, that's true, but Renard saw his role as more than that. When asked who it would benefit that Renard had coached so many of the Ghana side, Sulley Muntari's response was comically blunt. "He was never my coach," he said. "He looked after my fitness."

Whatever the reason, Ghana looked like potential champions only against Mali. They scraped by Botswana, laboured to a draw against Guinea and got through an ugly quarter-final against Tunisia thanks to an awful goalkeeping mistake and a breakdown of Tunisian discipline. Injuries to key players hampered them, as did the fact they had a day less to prepare than Zambia and had to travel from Franceville while their opponents were in situ, but their bench was found wanting, and the fear now must be that they become locked in the cycle of entitlement and failure familiar to so many other sides with supposed golden generations.

Zambia, meanwhile, have no such anxieties as they continue to ride their wave of emotion. "This is the moment," said their captain, Christopher Katongo. "This is the final. The tears will be dropping from the fans when they watch the final. When we step on the field, we have to do everything we can to get this cup."

Gervinho missed the decisive penalty for Ivory Coast as Zambia incredibly won the Africa Cup of Nations

Evening. Everybody knows about the Munich Air Disaster, and most people will have heard of the Superga Disaster, the plane crash that wiped out the entire Torino squad – Il Grande Torino – in 1949. But until this Africa Cup of Nations, few people in this country will have been aware of the tragedy that struck the Zambian football team in 1993 when, after taking off from Libreville in Gabon, a military plane carrying most of the squad crashed into the Atlantic Ocean. All 30 people on board, including the 18 players, were killed. Expected to win the game and, indeed, qualify for the 1994 World Cup, an entire generation of players had been wiped out, just like that. Their best player, Kalusha Bwaly, who played for PSV Eindhoven and is now the president of the Football Association of Zambia, only survived because he was travelling to the game on his own.

In the end, they missed out on qualification for the World Cup by a single point and after searching high and wide for new players, they finished second in the Africa Cup of Nations in 1994 under the former Chelsea manager Ian Porterfield. There has been little for them to celebrate since then. Until now. After 18 years in the shadows, Zambia, against all the odds, have reached the final of the Africa Cup of Nations, beating Ghana in the semi-final. The location of the final? Libreville, Gabon. The game, understandably, is being called a date with destiny, Zambia returning to the scene where tragedy struck 19 years ago. To complete the fairytale, they need to come up with one more miracle. Beating Ghana was stunning in its own right, but now they need to do all over again against the Ivory Coast, much like Andy Murray has to topple Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to win a grand slam.

Both sides, in their own way, have waited a long time for this. Given the context behind the game, the Ivory Coast probably could not have picked worse opponents, because it would appear almost callous to deny Zambia. Unfortunately football doesn't work like that and all the Ivory Coast can do is focus on the job in hand and not let themselves be affected by outside distractions. For years, they have had the potential to succeed at major tournaments, both at home and at World Cups. For years, they have underachieved, making them Africa's answer to pre-2008 Spain. Talk of golden generations is now banned in England, but this is the Ivory Coast's. Didier Drogba and company may not get another – or a better – chance to finally win something.

Ivory Coast: Barry; Gosso, K Toure, Bamba, Tiene; Zokora, Y Toure, Tiote; Gervinho, Drogba, Kalou.

Zambia: Mweene; Nkausu, Sunzu, Himoonde, Musonda; Chansa, Lungu, Sinkala, Kalab; C Katonga, Mayuka.

Kick-off: 7.30pm.

The teams stroll out, Ivory Coast in their orange kit, Zambia wearing green tracksuit tops. Kick-off isn't far away now.

Handshake time. Watch and learn, Luis.

Those were the anthems. Kolo Toure and Didier Zokora are tone deaf. That is all.

Before kick-off, a moment's silence to remember the violence in Port Said.

Peep! Ivory Coast get the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations final underway, kicking from right to left. It's not long before Zambia have it though, and Katonga belts down the right to win a corner off Bamba. "As an Irish man who grew up in Zambia, I have always just sort of assumed that I was destined to follow teams on the international stage who would count qualifications for tournaments and glorious quarter-final exits as their greatest achievements," says Declan Johnston. "Now there's the real possibility of cheering one of my countries to victory in a final for a big metal mug. The feeling of being an imposter is definitely unnerving. All of a sudden you can't hide behind self-depricating humour for explaining your team's miserable results. It's the hope that kills you really!"

2 min: What a well-worked corner that was! Instead of whipping it into the area, Kalaba rolls the ball almost along the goal-line to Katonga, who was standing by the near post. With his back to goal, he turned the ball back into the danger area and it came out to Sinkala, around 10 yards out. He hit his shot firmly, and it would have nestled in the bottom-left corner but for a very sharp save from Barry, who's not about to concede his first goal of the tournament that quickly.

4 min: Now it's the Ivory Coast's turn to attack after that early scare. Gervinho nearly breaks through into the area after a pass from Kalou, but Musonda is there to mop up, taking a knock in the process.

5 min: Jim Beglin really enjoyed that corner. He hasn't stopped talking about it for three minutes. To be fair, it was a very good corner - I haven't seen anything like it before.

6 min: Musonda might not be able to continue, having gone over on his ankle. Play is stopped again while he gets some treatment.

7 min: Zambia are down to 10 men for the time being, with Musonda off the pitch receiving treatment for that injury. It looks like he will continue though.

8 min: Zambia have been the better side so far, with the favourites yet to get into their stride.

11 min: A lull.

12 min: Musonda is in tears. This is terrible. He's going to have to come off after that early injury. As he walks off, he's consoled by Didier Drogba. This will almost certainly be his last major tournament. Nyambe Mulenga comes on in his place.

13 min: Remember how much hype there was about Didier Zokora before the 2006 World Cup?

14 min: Nkausu Delaps a long throw into the Ivory Coast area. No one can make anything of it at first, but the Ivory Coast defence, in keeping with their lacklustre start in general, goes to sleep, thinking the ball was going to bounce behind for a goal-kick. It didn't though and the alert Lungu got to the ball and dinked it back across goal from the right. Mayuka couldn't quite get above his header though, looping it on to the top of the net. A bit lower and Barry might well have been beaten. Zambia have started this final very well.

16 min: Drogba looks to inject some life into the Ivory Coast with a powerful run through the middle. He's brought down 35 yards from goal by Sinkala, but his free-kick is easily blocked by the wall. "There was a time when flicks on at the near post were described as "undefendable" but then teams just stopped doing it," says Gary Naylor. "That was a smart variation by Zambia - maybe more sides should hit the near post and get the ball moved on from there."

18 min: The atmophere inside the stadium is strangely muted.

19 min: Drogba's down again, this time after Himoonde takes him out from behind. This one's closer than the previous free-kick, though it's a bit wider.

20 min: Tiene gets the free-kick over the wall, but it's straight at Mweene. That might be the Zambia goalkeeper's first touch.

22 min: Salomon Kalou goes on a little adventure down the left and runs the ball out of play for a goal-kick. That's what's made him such a favourite at Stamford Bridge.

23 min: Now Zambia win a free-kick within shooting distance. Kalaba takes it, and it deflects off Tiote, spinning wide of the right post. Kalaba goes across to take the corner, but over-hits it, allowing the Ivory Coast to break and win one of their own through Kalou.

24 min: Drogba dashes towards the near post - heart in Zambian mouths for a moment - but his flick is deflected wide for another corner. Zambia claim the last contact was by Drogba, but the referee's having none of it.

25 min: The first real scare for Zambia, as Bamba is allowed a free header from Kalou's corner. He can't make good enough contact with the ball though, and though he nods it down into the six-yard box, leading to a spot of panic in the Zambia defence, the ball is eventually hacked clear. Up the other end, Katonga has a pop from distance, but it's tame and Barry holds comfortably.

27 min: Yaya Toure tries a shot from long range. The less said about it, the better. "Doesn't this game seem really enjoyable after this weekend's premiership 'action'?" says Mark Griffiths. "Zambian plane crash also puts handshakes into perspective."

28 min:Mayuka does well to hold the ball up and lay it off to Chansa, whose launches his shot into nearby Equatorial Guinea.

29 min: There's not a great deal of creativity in the Ivory Coast side. They have some powerful, tricky players, but Zambia look comfortable sitting back and asking them to open them up.

30 min: The commentator's curse nearly strikes. This time, Zambia are led on a song and dance by a lovely flowing move from the Ivory Coast. 'Jeremy' Gosso breaks down the right and knocks a low cross into the area, the ball coming to Drogba. He can't turn to shoot, but holds off a clutch of defenders, spins and backheels the ball to Yaya Toure, who's got a clear sight of goal. Normally so clinical in these positions, somehow he places his shot from 10 yards out inches past the left post.

34 min: Zambia are a huge threat at set-pieces, but they're not offering too much in open play.

37 min: From the right flank, Drogba plays a reverse-pass through to Gervinho, who's dashed across from left to right. Under pressure from Sunzu though, his shot is weak and rolls meekly to Mweene.

38 min: Zambia are so dangerous from set-pieces. From the right, Kalaba swings a corner to the other side of the area, where a Zambia player - I'm not sure who, so sue me* - is left all alone, only to slip and completely miss his kick.

*Please don't sue me.

39 min: Mweene nearly does a Barthez, taking the ball outside of the area when he had it in his hands. Drogba briefly appealed, but it was too tight to tell properly. It wouldn't have been a red card though.

43 min: Now Gosso's injured. Another stoppage. The Zambia player who had the chance from that corner a moment ago was Sinkala by the way.

45 min: There will be two minutes of stoppage time.

45 min+1: "I have paid exactly zero attention to this tournament," says Matt Dony. "Ivory Coast's keeper is called Barry? Really? Barry???" Barry. Apparently his nickname is Glendenning.

Peep! Peep! The half time whistle blows and Zambia are more than holding their own.

Half time: Ivory Coast 0-0 Zambia

46 min: Off we go again, Zambia getting the second half underway. And there's a familiar sight straight away, Drogba down holding his head after a clash with Mulenga.

47 min: Not that Drogba's faking it. He looks a bit dazed after that blow to the head and is off receiving treatment.

48 min: Drogba walks gingerly back on.

50 min: Gervinho speeds past Mulenga and drills the ball into the near post, but Drogba can't make anything of it with Sunzu sticking close to him again.

52 min: At what point is it acceptable to point out that this game isn't very good?

53 min: "I'm only here for the final, like the MBM Harry Kewell," parps Matt Dony. Does that mean you've pulled your hamstring?

55 min: Kalou curves a free-kick into the area from deep, but Drogba gets too much on his header when it should have been a delicate glance, and the ball flies well over the top.

58 min: This is like watching Paraguay v Paraguay.

60 min: Chansa's shot is deflected and despite the best efforts of Barry, it goes behind for a corner. Kalaba tries the short-corner routine again, and when it's returned to him, he stabs a cross into the area with the outside of his right boot. The ball spurts up off an Ivorian head and loops just over the far post. The next corner leads to nothing.

62 min: A shock is on the cards here. Mayuka breaks clear down the right and drives the ball across goal, forcing Gosso to turn his cross behind with a Zambian attacker lurking nearby.

63 min: Cheik Tiote is booked for blocking off Mulenga. Max Gradel comes on for the anonymous Kalou. "Or Italy v Italy," says Shane O'Mahony. "Or Italy v Paraguay for that matter."

66 min: Kabala curls a free-kick way over the bar, shortly after Bamba is booked for dissent.

68 min: Gradel's first contribution is a tricky run down the left, but having got to the byline, the superb Sunzu is in the way of his cutback towards Drogba. "I agree that Barry is a fine name for a keeper (presumably he's even more defensive than his namesake Gareth) but surely the coolest-named fellow in the respective teams is "Sunzu"!" says Ryan Dunne. "Is he displaying much "Art of War" in his defensive style? Like Matt Dony, I'm a final-only glory hunter. Although the African cup of nations *strips* are utterly superb, especially the subtle animal designs. I wish Scotland had some lions, elephants, tigers and bears or the like on their strips. Might help strike fear into opposing defenses. And surely Indonesia would be a lot higher than #143 in those FIFA rankings if their strips featured the mighty Komodo Dragon?"

69 min:PENALTY TO IVORY COAST! Gervinho bustles into the area and is sandwiched by Chansa and Mulenga, the former giving a little shove into the back of the Ivory Coast winger. Soft, perhaps, but a foolish challenge. Mulenga is booked. Mweene saved a penalty from Asamoah Gyan in the semi-final.

70 min: DIDIER DROGBA MISSES! It's a repeat of Jaap Stam's penalty at Euro 2000, as he disregards everything he ever read in a coaching manual, leans back and blazes the ball miles over the bar! What a dreadful penalty. He looks accusingly at the spot, but there was no excuse for that.

72 min: Oh Didier.

73 min: A comment from Rob Smyth on the state of this game.

74 min: Well that's embarrassing. The substitute has been substituted, Mulenga off for Felix Katongo. That's presumably to protect him after his booking.

75 min: Konan Ya replaces Didier Zokora. "I don't get the Paraguay v Italy joke," says Andrew Seymour. "Please explain?" They're both boring.

78 min: "Barry the keeper might be even more defensive than Barry the tortoise-paced midfield mediocrity, but at least he spends less time passing sideways," says the obsessed Matt Dony.

79 min: How to sum up this game in three short words. Warning: contains adult language.

80 min: Mayuka looks like a very good player, but he's been unable to come up with a telling pass in dangerous positions.

83 min: Lungu sends a swerving drive a few yards wide of the right post. Barry always had it covered, but gave it a sympathy dive anyway, just for something to do. It's a shame Camp Krusty's Mr Black isn't commentating on this game.

84 min: "As a Chelsea fan, I've often wondered what might have happened in Moscow had Drogba been on the pitch to take a high pressure penalty in a big final, instead of John Terry," says Iain Chambers. "That won't be bothering me any more."

87 min: Yaya Toure is replaced by Wilfried Bony. Toure had a very poor game by his standards. The Ivorians have been collectively bad though; maybe the pressure has got to them.

88 min: That should have been the winner. Bony knocks a high ball down to Gradel in the area. He brilliantly feints to shoot, throwing the Zambian defence off course, but having worked the opening, he drags his left-footed shot agonisingly past the right post.

89 min: "Does anyone with knowledge of the stadium location know whether Drogba's penalty would have landed in the Congo or the Gulf of Guinea?" honks Simon Ward in London. I think the ball's just landed in your front room, Simon.

90 min: There will be four minutes of stoppage time. Score a goal for me.

90 min+2: An wonderful last-ditch tackle from Kolo Toure stops Mayuka winning it for Zambia. It was a great move from Zambia, Chansa cleverly scooping the ball over the top - think Paul Scholes against Milan in 2007 - for Mayuka. The ball just wouldn't sit nicely for him though, allowing Toure to get back and concede a corner at the vital moment.

90 min+4: Mweene dives bravely at the feet of Gervinho after a corner led to a scramble in the Zambia area. Gervinho's come off worse out of that one.

Peep! Peep! No one did score a goal for me. We're going to extra time. "This game could have used Emmanuel Eboue," says Figen Altinis.

Full time: Ivory Coast 0-0 Zambia.

ET 1 min: Right, up your game lads.

ET 2 min: Put this on a loop.

ET 3 min: Mweene is out smartly to smother the ball at Drogba's feet as he threatened to overpower Sunzu. It must be said that Sunzy has had a fine game at the back for Zambia.

ET 5 min: Zambia hit the post! Felix Katongo nutmegs Tiene on the right and hares into the area, before finding Captain Katongo six yards out. He clips the ball towards the bottom-right corner, but with Barry going the wrong way, the goalkeeper somehow sticks out a foot and brushes the shot with his studs, diverting it on to the post. What a save. And some really good Katongo-on-Katongo action there.

ET 8 min: Bony slips a pass through to Drogba, but he's outmuscled by Himoonde and goes to ground in the area, drawing whistles from the Zambia fans.

ET 10 min: Am I the only person who found Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy interminably dull? Give me some explosions.

ET 11 min: "This game would be much better if it was on Sky," says Simon McMahon. "The Barclays African Cup of Nations surely couldn't fail to disappoint?"

ET 12 min: Herve Renard is a preposterously cool man.

ET 14 min: A loose header falls to Gervinho on the left of the area. He cuts inside, but Sunzu's in the way of his shot. He's always in the way. We'll gloss over the fact it was his header that have Gervinho the chance in the first place.

ET 15min+1: Chansa plops a free-kick straight into the Ivory Coast wall.

Half time in extra time: Ivory Coast 0-0 Zambia.

ET 16 min: Off we go again. We're drifting towards penalties now, which is good news for Didier Drogba. "We think alike about Herve," says Mark Judd. "I sent this message to my girlfriend at 9.20: 'he's a cool looking dude on the touch line - jeans and white shirt, no tie, extra button undone'." Is she going to let you dress like that now?

ET 17 min: Gradel crosses. There's Sunzu again. "It wasn't that dull, it just let you know they knew 'something'... then they put in a bit of tension music... then they decided to not tell you," says Paul Neilan. "You weren't on a need-to-know-basis, Steinberg, if that is your real name etc, and then you were left alone, out in the cold. It really stood by its spy principles. Admirable. Nay, a silent triumph. Although, you and I could do that with any film if we couldn't be arsed finishing it."

ET 18 min: Kalaba brings a high ball down beautifully and drives into the area, but Bamba blocks his cross-shot behind. The corner is hooked clear by Drogba. "Tinker Tailor rubbish, all moody non-dialogue and twisty plot that you desperately follow and then the denouement is cos the baddies are idiots and say something stupid - what's the point of the clever twisty plot when the goodies don't have to unravel it?" blasts Clive Darwell.

ET 21 min: Tiote pummels a shot goalwards. It's deflected through to Gervinho, but he's offside. "I already dress like Herve but I can't seem to look anywhere near as cool," says Mark Judd. "Must be something French."

ET 22 min: "It was boring," says Harry Stopes. "All the possible moles were interchangeably posh, dull and closeted to such an extent that I forget which one was the grass."

ET 23 min: Is Herve Renard cool? "Not if you were unfortunate enough to watch Herve Renard's attempts to manage an admittedly terrible Cambridge United team in the 2004/5 season when he could only grunt his two English words at the shocking excuse of a team he had put out failed yet again to string two passes together and slumped out if the league, still to return," says Ben Yelton. Yeah, but look at his hair.

ET 24 min: I think he's cool. "Just like Joachim Low, even down to the shirt," says Stephen Gibb. "I'd imagine it must take significant sacrifice in terms of practice in front of the mirror. He was also yelling at someone on his team, accusing them of being afraid of the opposition, so clearly an expert on management of team ego development as well as his own."

ET 25 min: Kalaba plays a one-two and then whacks a storming shot past the left post. Barry was scrambling across there.

ET 26 min: "Tinker etc etc was England vs Algeria dull," says Iain Chambers. If Oldman gets an Oscar for that, I might submit my three hour epic, '46 year old man watches the TV' for next year's awards." I think I've seen a variation that before.

ET 27 min: Mweene comes rushing off his line to flap at a Drogba flick-on, with Gervinho trying to head it past him. Let's face it, there's only one winner there: comedy. The ball drops to Gradel, but he swipes at it and misses, allowing Himoonde to clear. Mweene is down, but he should be up again soon.

ET 29 min: Mweene is up again.

Full time in extra time: Ivory Coast 0-0 Zambia. It's penalties. Didier Drogba must be thrilled.

My contention is that when a game has been that boring, the players have a duty to let it go to penalties.

Ivory Coast lost the 2006 final to Egypt on penalties. What does that tell us? That Ivory Coast lost the 2006 final to Egypt on penalties.

On the touchline, the Zambian players are singing.

Ivory Coast are going to go first. Cheik Tiote is first up.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 1-0 Zambia: A fine penalty from Tiote, placed into the right corner, Mweene going the wrong way.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 1-1 Zambia*: Ivory Coast's captain, Didier Drogba, missed a penalty in normal time, but Zambia's captain, Christian Katongo makes no mistake. He strolls up, halts and strokes it into the bottom-right corner. Barry didn't move.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 2-1 Zambia: That was a good penalty from Bony, clipped high into the top-left corner.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 2-2 Zambia*: Zambia's players are still singing. And with good reason, as Mayuka drills it high into the left corner. Barry went the right way, but he had no chance.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 3-2 Zambia: Bamba misses! But he's going to get a second chance, as the linesman flags and the referee rules that Mweene comes off his line to save it. The second penalty is emphatic, smashed into the roof of the net.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 3-3 Zambia*: Chansa says a prayer and then sends Barry the wrong way again, the ball going into the left corner.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 4-3 Zambia: Gradel scores, a near-identical penalty to Chansa's.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 4-4 Zambia*: These penalties are brilliant. Felix Katongo clips it over Barry's dive and into the left corner. It must be noted that the goalkeeper was off his line there...

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 5-4 Zambia: That took some nerve from Drogba after his miss in normal time. It's a high penalty again, but this time it stays underneath the bar. Nicely done. Now Zambia must score. And it's going to be Mweene to take it!

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 5-5 Zambia*: How do you like that? Mweene, the Zambian goalkeeper steps up, and sends Barry the wrong way! It's sudden death now.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 6-5 Zambia: What a penalty, sidefooted high into the left corner with his left foot by Tiene.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 6-6 Zambia*: Wow. Sinkala steps up and roofs it! That's the best penalty yet. Who does he think he is, Zidane?

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 7-6 Zambia: Konan Ya thumps it home.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 7-7 Zambia*: Lungu scores. This is never going to end.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 7-7 Zambia: Kolo Toure takes a massive run-up and Mweene saves his tame penalty, easily going down to his left and pushing it away! Score now and Zambia win the Africa Cup of Nations!

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast 7-7 Zambia*: Incredible! Kalaba lifts his penalty over the bar! Ivory Coast escape! Zambian prayers aren't answered.

PENALTIES: Ivory Coast* 7-7 Zambia: As Gervinho stepped up, I said to anyone who cared to listen that he'd miss. No proof of it on here, but he's come up with an awful penalty, sidefooted high and wide. It wasn't even close. Zambia have another chance to win it.

ZAMBIA WIN 8-7 ON PENALTIES: It had to be Sunzu! He slams it down the middle, Barry dives and Zambia have won the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations! You could not script this.

Sunzu wheels off in celebration, chased by the rest of the Zambian team! Eventually, there's a bundle, while devastated Ivory Coast players collapse in tears. Herve Renard carries the injured Musonda, who was in tears at the start of the game after having to go off, on to the pitch to be with his team-mates. What a guy. In the city where 30 Zambians lost their lives in 1993, they have returned for their country's finest sporting hour. Date with destiny? A home run on the first date.

What a story. Now for the trophy. Once again, the Ivory Coast are the nearly men. "But how can a team with no representatives from The Most Exciting League in the Universe win the Cup of Nations?" says Lou Roper. "Preposterous."

You have to hand it to ITV for cutting to an ad break shortly after the winning penalty. A classy move.

On Eurosport, they're showing Ivory Coast receiving their medals. On ITV, they're showing adverts. They shouldn't be allowed near live football. "At least ads after the winning penalty beats ads in place of a goal during play," says Matt Dony.

Ivory Coast didn't concede a single goal in the entire tournament. Yup, that'll be a consolation for them later on tonight.

Zambia's players have been singing since the start of the penalty shoot-out. What energy!

Christopher Katongo kisses the trophy and then lifts it into the air. This is the feel-good story of 2012, something to restore your faith in football after recent events over here.

• Zambia 0-0 Ivory Coast (Zambia win 8-7 on pens)

Stopila Sunzu began Sunday as an unheralded centre-back for the Congolese side TP Mazembe. He ended it as the unlikely hero of one of the greatest stories of redemption football has ever known. As Kalusha Bwalya, the greatest Zambian footballer of all time, was engulfed by the Zambia players after their victory in a penalty shoot-out, there were tears of joy but also tears born of the knowledge that this should have been his team-mates celebrating with him.

Herve Renard, the Zambia coach, had spoken of destiny in this most emotional of triumphs and Zambia played as though they believed it.

On Friday morning they gathered on a scruffy beach in Libreville, sang and laid flowers in the water for their compatriots who had died in 1993, shortly after taking off from the Gabonese capital for a World Cup qualifier in Senegal. Last night they played for their memory and, against all expectation, ended up with Zambia's first Cup of Nations. Bwalya survived only because he played for PSV Eindhoven and was making his own way to Dakar.

For Ivory Coast it was another story of failure, a fourth straight tournament in which they should have won but did not. Their golden generation is running out of chances to lift a trophy. For Didier Drogba, the oldest of the side, there was particular anguish.

He had wasted a sitter 10 minutes from the end of the 2006 final and then missed a penalty in the shoot-out. Last night he converted in the shoot-out but could have avoided the need had he not blazed a 70th-minute penalty over the bar.

The first 14 kicks in the penalty competition were converted, at which the Ivory Coast coach, François Zahoui, clearly asked Gervinho to step up. He refused and Kolo Touré saw his effort saved low to his right by the Zambia keeper Kennedy Mweene. The gifted winger Rainford Kalaba could have won it but, with the chance to make history, thrashed his kick over. Gervinho at last went forward but his shot was tentative and high, leaving Sunzu to complete a victory Zambia seemed to have believed was theirs from the moment the draw ensured they would play only the final in Libreville.

In the semi-final Zambia had sat off, almost forcing Ghana to play, but against an Ivory Coast team that has been consistently conservative they made the running, encouraged by a clever corner routine that almost brought an opening goal after two minutes.

Rainford Kalaba took it short to Christopher Katongo, who cut it back for Nathan Sinkala and his shot was well-saved low to his right by Boubacar Barry.

As Kalaba had a free-kick glance just wide off Cheik Tioté, there were shimmies and shuffles all over, almost as though they were determined to rile Ivory Coast. The person who seemed most irritated, though, was Renard, who thumped the right-back Davies Nkausu in the chest while bawling instructions as he prepared to take a throw just in front of the bench.

Ivory Coast's policy may have been throughout the tournament to sit back, absorb pressure and wait for mistakes. Zambia simply did not make them. Zahoui's safety-first policy turned out to be an enormous risk; without style it was victory or nothing, and it turned out to be nothing. Drogba may have one more chance in South Africa next year but the clock ticks ever louder.

For Zambia, though, there was a bittersweet joy, a sense of having done something that transcended sport. Efford Chabala, John Soko, Whiteson Changwe, Robert Watiyakeni, Eston Mulenga, Derby Makinka, Moses Chikwalakwala, Wisdom Mumba Chansa, Kelvin "Malaza" Mutale, Timothy Mwitwa, Numba Mwila, Richard Mwanza, Samuel Chomba, Moses Masuwa, Kenan Simambe, Godfrey Kangwa, Winter Mumba, Patrick "Bomber" Banda, Godfrey "Ucar" Chitalu and Alex Chola were not there last night but the modern-day side built for them the greatest possible memorial.

Gabon fans' support for Zambia in Africa Cup of Nations final reconciles nations driven apart by crash that killed 18 players

Of all the extraordinary memories of the Africa Cup of Nations final, perhaps the most remarkable was the reaction of the crowd. In the aftermath of the 1993 plane crash that killed 18 Zambia players just after take-off after refuelling at Libreville, relations between Zambia and Gabon sunk to ugly lows.

There were street protests in Libreville complaining that mortuary facilities were being used for the Zambian players rather than local dead. There were rows over who should pay for the investigation and even suggestions that the plane en route to a World Cup qualifier against Senegal, had been inadvertently shot down by Gabon's military.

When decisions made by the Gabonese referee Jean-Fidel Diramba denied a rebuilt Zambia qualification for the 1994 World Cup, relations between the countries were shattered. "Innuendoes against Gabon," the Times of Zambia wrote, "will continue to fly for as long as memories of the crash, the frustrated searchers, the cynical, almost triumphant grin of a referee named Diramba linger on in the Zambian mind." In Zambia the word "gabon" is still used to mean something substandard or untrustworthy.

And yet on Sunday night the crowd, most of whom were Gabonese, clearly backed Hervé Renard's side as they defeated Ivory Coast 8-7 on penalties. The ultimate underdog story, the triumph of the human spirit, won over home fans who might have been expected to be hostile. Even on Monday, a taxi driver stuck in traffic idly drummed on his steering-wheel chanting "Chipolopolo, Chipolopolo" (the Copper-headed Bullets), the nickname Zambia took on after the plane crash.

This was an event that went beyond partisanship, beyond Zambia's usual virtues of discipline, organisation and pace. This was something that went beyond sport: it was about a nation coming together to fulfil a dream. The 87-year-old former president Kenneth Kaunda – such a big fan that before the crash the team was known as the KKXI – was there and so was his fellow former-president Rupiah Banda.

So too was Kalusha Bwalya, probably Zambia's greatest player and now the president of the federation. He escaped the 1993 crash because he was based in the Netherlands with PSV Eindhoven and so made his own travel arrangements.

It was his idea to pull together the cream of the youth teams after failure to qualify for the 2006 World Cup and develop a young squad and Bwalya who brought back the 43-year-old Renard, who had coached Zambia at the last Cup of Nations, in October. When Bwalya appeared on the running track after the final penalty, every green-shirted player raced straight over. As Renard said, nobody knew what the victory meant more than him.

Renard, a stern father of a coach, had discussed the possibilities of the draw when he gathered his squad together on December 28. "I said to the players, 'You know we play first against Senegal and the plane was going to Senegal, and the final is in Libreville, where the plane was leaving from.' I can't explain it: it was written." He has walked a fine line between arrogance and self-mockery during the tournament, but here he was insistent: "It's nothing to do with me."

It clearly is, though. He once ran a rubbish collection business and was sacked by Cambridge United in 2004 after fewer than five months in charge but his persistence has been rewarded. He can be ruthless, as he showed in sending home the midfielder Clifford Mulenga for refusing to apologise after breaking a curfew, and he can get angry as was demonstrated in a first-half incident involving the right-back Davies Nkausu.

Incensed at the advanced position Nkausu had taken up he thumped him in the chest while shouting instructions. "We saw against Mali [with his goal in the semi-final] that if you leave 50 metres behind you, Gervinho will kill you," he said. "I showed them that sequence, so I was furious he did not respect what I said. Perhaps it looks strange from the outside, but they know how I am. There's no problem. I think they need someone like this. If they had a coach who didn't react like this … they need to be pushed. Sometimes they are not very focused but they can do magical things." Certainly Nkausu did not seem to take it amiss, patting his coach on the shoulder as though to calm him down.

The final whistle showed the other side of him, as he picked up the left-back Joseph Musonda, who had been forced off injured after 12 minutes, and carried him on to the pitch to join the celebrations .

It emerged that Renard had expected to be in the final. He had packed three of his famed lucky white shirts (Zambia have never lost a Cup of Nations game when he's worn white): one for the three group games, one for the quarter-final and semi-final and "a special one" for the final. He was sensitive enough, though, to leave the central role in the celebrations to Bwalya. He had spoke of "reconnecting" with his 18 dead team-mates and this was a victory of the past as well as the present.

The Zambian 'Chipolopolo' team receive a heroes' welcome in Lusaka after winning the Africa Cup of Nations

Zambia are champions of Africa, 19 years after its national team perished in a plane crash that undermined relations with Gabon

"For most Zambians, it was like putting something to bed." So said a supporter after her country's dramatic penalty shootout win over Ivory Coast in the final of the Africa Cup of Nations on Sunday. Zambia's worst footballing disaster took place 19 years ago, when a rickety old military plane carrying a gifted national team crashed after takeoff, killing all on board. The plane had just refuelled at Libreville in Gabon, and the disaster plunged relations between Zambia and Gabon to new lows. There were rows over who should pay for the investigation, and theories that the plane had been inadvertently shot down by Gabon's military. So it was fated that the return of the team known as the Copper Bullets should have started with a tie against Senegal, where the 1993 aircraft was headed, and should have ended in Gabon. Many believe the ghosts of the fallen team were playing with them. It gives team spirit a whole new meaning.

• Asamoah Gyan urged to reconsider international break
• Pep Guardiola's future at Barcelona still unclear

Gyan urged to reconsider after taking Ghana break

Asamoah Gyan has been urged by the Ghana FA to reconsider his decision to take a break from international football because of the "verbal abuse" he received from fans during the Africa Cup of Nations. An FA statement said the 26-year-old Sunderland striker, currently on loan at Al-Ain in the United Arab Emirates, had informed them of his decision in writing, but that they "are in talks with Mr Gyan to urge him to reconsider his decision".

Gyan missed an early penalty and other chances as Zambia, the eventual winners, beat Ghana 1-0 earlier this month in the semi-finals. He also missed a penalty in the dying seconds of extra time in Ghana's 2010 World Cup quarter-final against Uruguay, which the South Americans win in a shootout. PA

Guardiola future unclear

Pep Guardiola is still putting off a decision on extending his Barcelona contract beyond the end of this season, saying he needs more time to decide. The 41-year-old said: "I know I would not be better off somewhere else, but I need to feel it. I cannot work at such a demanding club if I don't have strength. I don't have it clear in my mind, that's why I am not saying whether the cycle has ended or whether I will extend." AP

• Officials plan to present evidence to Fifa to support claim
• Chitalu's 107 goals in 1972 were not officially recognised

Zambia's Football Association is planning an official challenge to Lionel Messi's record for the most goals scored in a calendar year – claiming the Barcelona forward's tally of 86 was beaten in 1972.

Messi's two goals at Real Betis on Sunday took him past Gerd Müller's officially recognised 40-year-old record of 85.

However, the Zambian FA told Soccer Laduma that they would present evidence to Fifa to show that the Kabwe Warriors striker Godfrey Chitalu, who won Zambia's player of the year award five times, scored 107 goals in 1972.

"We have this record, which has been recorded in Zambian football, but unfortunately it has not been recorded in world football," said a Zambia FA spokesperson. "Even as the world has been looking at Lionel Messi's record, breaking Gerd Müller's, the debate and discussion back here has been why Godfrey's goals are not being recognised.

"What we are doing is, we have commissioned an independent team locally to go back into the archives and record minute-by-minute each of those goals. The team that we have put together is going to calculate all of those goals, recording whichever game or tournament they were scored in.

"We will then send that to CAF [Confederation of African Football] and Fifa so that we can show that, while Messi's record is there, while Müller's record is there, the actual record holder in terms of goals per calendar year is actually an African. It's actually Godfrey Chitalu."

Chitalu, who scored the goals in at least four domestic competitions and also played for Zambia's national team, went on to become national coach. He died in 1993 when a plane carrying the team crashed near Gabon.

• Messi scores twice in Copa del Rey win to extend 2012 tally
• However Zambia FA and Flamengo plan to appeal record

Lionel Messi scored two goals to extend his tally for 2012 to 88 and earn Barcelona, holders of the Copa del Rey, a 2-0 win at second division Córdoba in their last-16 first leg.

On Sunday Messi passed Gerd Müller's official record for a calendar year of 85 set in 1972, and he opened the scoring in the 11th minute at Córdoba's Arcángel stadium when, from a David Villa centre, he clipped the ball into the net off the underside of the bar from close in.

Fielding a near full-strength team despite the lowly opposition, Barça controlled the game in the second half before Thiago Alcântara sent Messi clear on the left in the 74th minute and he finished low into the corner.

However, it emerged on Wednesday that Messi's record could be challenged by the Zambia Football Association and the Brazilian side Flamengo, who both said that they plan to appeal his landmark tally.

The Zambia FA said it would present evidence to Fifa to show that the Kabwe Warriors striker Godfrey Chitalu scored 107 goals in 1972, while Flamengo claim that the former Brazil captain Zico scored 89 goals in 1979.

"We are upset. Messi still hasn't passed the milestone," Bruno Lucena, the head of Flamengo's research and statistics department, told the Brazilian sports daily Lance. Lucena calculated that Zico scored 81 goals for Flamengo in 1979, plus another seven for Brazil and one in a friendly between Argentina and a Rest of the World XI.

He added that Zico missed two months of the season through injury between September and November. "If he had played for the whole year, he would have scored more than 100 goals," he said.

Elsewhere in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday, Real Madrid fell two goals behind at Celta Vigo but Cristiano Ronaldo's late strike to make it 2-1 put the 2011 winners in a reasonably strong position ahead of next week's second leg at their Bernabéu stadium.

Sevilla virtually assured themselves of a place in the last eight when they crushed Real Mallorca 5-0 in Palma, while last year's runners-up Athletic Bilbao were dumped out by third-tier Eibar on away goals after the second leg of their postponed last-32 tie ended 1-1.

From Chelsea's Champions League win to the mercurial continuance of Spain's international dominance, 2012 has been an interesting year for football

Ghana and Nigeria have gambled on leaving out their disruptive influences – but history has shown that the team is paramount

There is a new mood of militancy about west African football. The buildup to previous Cups of Nations has often been dominated by will-he-won't-he sagas as big-name players decide whether they really want to take a month out of the league season to go to play for their countries. This year, the coaches have hit back. The Ghana coach, Kwesi Appiah, on Monday omitted Marseille's André Ayew from his squad after the Marseille winger reportedly turned up late for a squad get-together; he follows Nigeria's Steve Keshi, who had already refused to select Peter Odemwingie and Shola Ameobi on the grounds they didn't seem bothered enough about representing their country.

There are those who insist Ayew is the victim of a personality clash with Appiah but the coach's reasoning seemed clear enough. "All the players were given the deadline of Saturday to report to camp in Abu Dhabi," he said in a statement on the Ghanaian FA's website. "Unfortunately André did not turn up despite being released by his club and air tickets provided by the GFA for him to travel from France to beat the deadline. As he did not turn up by Saturday night, I ordered for him to be contacted over his absence, but he said he could not depart from France because he was seeing his doctors."

Problems began early last week when Ayew suffered a hamstring pull in training. Marseille wrote to the GFA to explain the situation and seemingly accepted a request to release the winger so he could be assessed by Ghana's team doctors over the weekend. With the squad on Wednesday due to leave for the tournament in South Africa, which begins on 19 January, Ayew was then given an extension to Monday but, when he failed to meet that, Appiah decided he had no chance to assess his fitness and therefore had to leave him out.

It may be that the hamstring injury is a useful excuse for both sides. That relations between Ayew and Appiah were tense was obvious in October when the player appeared to insult the coach as he left the pitch having been substituted in Ghana's final Nations Cup qualifier against Malawi. Ayew then refused to shake hands with the team director, Sabahn Quaye, and his team-mates on the bench. The GFA gave Ayew a week to apologise. He did so, but Appiah issued a warning even in accepting it: "I wish to remind all players of the Black Stars that any act of indiscipline will not be tolerated as we focus on preparing for the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations." Leaving out Ayew reinforces that message.

Less dramatically, it's been a similar story in Nigeria. Keshi was a tough and muscular centre-back and he is a tough and muscular manager, as anybody who saw him grab Emmanuel Adebayor by the throat on the team bus after Togo had lost to DR Congo at the Cup of Nations in 2006 can attest. He has been adamant since taking the job last year that he wants only players who are fully committed. That initially meant leaving out Mikel John Obi and Odemwingie but although the Chelsea midfielder has returned, the West Brom forward has not.

Odemwingie has proved a disruptive presence in the past, publicly criticising the tactical approach taken by Shuaibu Amodu at the 2010 Cup of Nations, blaming the then manager Lars Lagerback for Nigeria's early exit from the 2010 World Cup and engaging in a Twitter spat with Samson Siasia, Keshi's predecessor.

"He said he was unhappy at how he was treated in the past in the national team. He explained that prior to Nigeria's participation at the 2010 World Cup, he played in all the qualifying games but was dropped at the finals," said Keshi. "He said he was angry at the treatment meted out to him but did not discuss it with anyone. I told him that was not the best way to handle issues and that if he had already decided not to play for the national team, he should have opened up to me when I invited him to play."

The 31-year-old took to Twitter to criticise Keshi and subsequently explained that he had asked to be considered for the Cup of Nations but hadn't been able to get hold of the coach. Communication seems an ongoing issue with Nigeria and with Keshi: he gave up his attempts to persuade Ameobi to defy Newcastle United and play in the Cup of Nations after repeatedly failing to get through to the centre-forward. With Taye Taiwo and Obafemi Martins also omitted, Keshi has sent out a statement just as clear as Appiah's: nobody is indispensable.

Adebayor bucks the trend. He has finally decided to play for Togo at the tournament after initially expressing fears over security. His position in Togolese football is, of course, very different to that of Ayew in Ghana or Odemwingie in Nigeria, as by far the biggest name, but if anybody can be forgiven hesitation, it is surely a player who was on the bus attacked by gunmen in Cabinda on its way to the 2010 tournament.

Zambia's victory in Libreville last February was a hugely moving and emotional triumph but it also provided a template. That was a squad that included just one player, Emmanuel Mayuka, who played for a top-flight side in Europe. Their success was rooted in humility, togetherness and organisation – and, by the end, an unstoppable sense of their own destiny. There were no stars and discipline was rigorously enforced: early in the tournament last year, the Zambia coach, Hervé Renard, sent the midfielder Clifford Mulenga home after he refused to apologise after breaking a curfew.

Ghana, in fact, know from their own recent history the importance of togetherness. The side that reached the final of the Cup of Nations in 2010 and was within a Luis Suárez handball and a missed Asamoah Gyan penalty of a World Cup semi-final in South Africa was effectively formed at the moment Milovan Rajevac dropped Sulley Muntari for his tardiness in paying a fine imposed after he, Gyan and Michael Essien skipped a friendly. Muntari ended up being omitted from the squad for Angola where a young side, forged at the Under-20 World Cup in Egypt a year earlier, proved its worth.

For a couple of decades African football has been beholden to the big names who have established reputations in Europe. In certain cases – George Weah in Liberia or Didier Drogba in Ivory Coast, for instance – the leadership provided by those players has been overwhelmingly positive, but too often egos have been indulged and petty jealousies have developed as a result. What Zambia and Rajovac's Ghana show is that the team is always paramount. Keshi and Appiah have gambled, and if things go wrong there is no one else to share the blame, but at least they will be succeeding or failing on their own terms. It's a shame for the tournament to be stripped of big names and gifted players, but far more important is that teams should play as such.

The championship, which kicks off in South Africa on Saturday, has always been about more than 'just' football

The big kick-off is nearly upon us. Just 11 months after that extraordinary Zambian triumph in Libreville, starting Saturday we have another month of football ahead as Africa's top teams (and South Africa, there as hosts) fight it out to be champions of Africa.

Africa is a Country will be covering the tournament more intensively this time around on a brand new page: Football is a Country. We'll start with a very brief and very selective tournament history.

The very first CAN was organised to mark the Confederation of African Football's (CAF) official launch in Khartoum in 1957, making Africa's continental prize three years older than its European equivalent. The competition has always been about more than "just" football. One of CAF's founding fathers, the influential and charismatic Ethiopian Yidnekatchew Tessema, would later gave a stirring speech in Cairo in 1974 in which he laid out a vision of football as a force to unite the continent.

I'm issuing a call to our general assembly that it affirm that Africa is one and indivisible, that we work towards the unity of Africa together... That we condemn superstition, tribalism, all forms of discrimination within our football and in all domains of life. We do not accept the division of Africa into Francophone, Anglophone, and Arabophone. Arabs from north Africa and Zulus from South Africa, we are all authentic Africans. Those who try to divide us by way of football are not our friends.

But when CAF was founded in 1957, many African countries were still struggling to win independence from European colonial rule, and only three countries took part in the first competition. South Africa (a founding member) had been banned after its apartheid administrators refused to field a racially mixed team, and so just two matches were played, with Ethiopia given a pass to the final. Egypt narrowly defeated hosts Sudan 2-1 in their semi-final, before blowing Ethiopia away 4-0 to become the first ever nation to be crowned champions of Africa.

Pharoahs' striker Mohammed Diab El-Attar put in a performance that would never be forgotten, scoring all four of Egypt's goals. One of the great figures of mid-century African football "Ad Diba", as he was known, went on to appear at another Nations Cup final in Addis Ababa nine years later, but this time as the referee, having swapped his shooting boots for a whistle.

The number of competing nations grew rapidly as independence movements began to triumph across the continent. In 1960, 16 nations won their independence and by the 1962 tournament there were so many teams wanting to compete that qualifying rounds had to be introduced. Newly independent Ghana swept to victory twice in a row in 1963 and 1965, inspired by their soccer-mad president Kwame Nkrumah.

In line with Nkrumah's Pan-Africanism, Ghana's Black Stars borrowed their famous nickname from the radical Jamaican intellectual Marcus Garvey's shipping line, which was established to take black Americans "back-to Africa". The stars of the 60s were Ghana's Osei Kofi and Cote d'Ivoire legend Laurent Pokou (nicknamed "L'Homme d'Asmara" for the five goals he scored in a single match against Ethiopia), who top-scored at both the 1968 and 1970 tournaments.

The 1970s was a great decade for Central African nations, with Republic of Congo's 1972 victory followed by Zaire's in 1974 (they'd already won the competition as Congo-Kinshasa in 1968). West African sides dominated through the 1980s and early 1990s. This was also an era of great players: Hassan Shehata (he would later coach Egypt to three Cup of Nations victories), inventor of the blind pass Lakhdar Belloumi, Théophile Abega (who passed away late last year), Thomas N'kono (Gianluigi Buffon decided to become a goalkeeper after watching N'kono's performances at Italia 90, and named his son after him), Rashidi Yekini, Abedi Pele, Roger Milla (so good he got his own song), Rabah Madjer, Kalusha Bwalya and George Weah (click on the links, the videos are tasty). Then in 1996, the last time South Africa hosted the tournament, Bafana Bafana had their own "Invictus" moment to savour.

Since the turn of the millennium, the tournament has been the stage on which the likes of Samuel Eto'o, Mohamed Aboutrika,Jay-Jay Okocha, Patrick M'Boma, Hossam Hassan and Didier Drogba have shone. CAN has been dominated since 2000 by Cameroon (back-to-back winners in 2000 and 2002) and Egypt ( three-in-a-row between 2006 and 2010). Both of those heavyweights are missing for the second tournament running, after Bob Bradley's Egypt lost to Central African Republic and Cape Verde beat Cameroon.

No team looks to be very far ahead of the rest, and, refreshingly given Spain's recent domination of the World Cup and European Championship, this year's African Cup of Nations is as open a tournament as you'll find in international football.

Join AIAC's Fantasy Football league for the tournament where you can test your football knowledge against theirs – the league pin is 9132137935284.

Thanks to Peter Alegi and his book African Soccerscapes, and Steve Bloomfield and his book Africa United. An earlier version of this post formed part of the tournament preview for Selamta

More from Guardian Africa network partners on the championship:
• Daily Maverick: Africa Cup of Nations for dummies
• Addis Rumble: The Ethiopian comeback

Ahead of the start of the tournament in South Africa on Saturday, we take a look at the 16 teams involved and their chances in the competition

You can't bet against the Ivorians but, with Ghana, Algeria and Nigeria looking strong, it would still be no surprise if they failed once more

Ah, Ivory Coast. As we approach kick-off in another Africa Cup of Nations, all we can say for sure is that it would be as foolish to back against Didier Drogba & Co as it would be cavalier to count on them. For the fifth time in a row the Elephants go into the tournament as one of the heaviest favourites, but this time no one will be surprised if they flop in timid or traumatic fashion.

Bad luck and bad attitudes have been foremost among the factors that have led to seemingly the most gifted generation of Ivorian players losing the 2006 and 2012 Nations Cup finals on penalties and getting dumped out of the two tournaments between by opponents who turned out to be sharper and more balanced (Egypt in the 2008 semi-finals and Algeria in the 2010 quarter-finals).

There are reasons to believe those experiences have made Ivory Coast stronger, but there is also cause to suspect that other teams with exciting young talents are about to add to their woes.

Ghana and Nigeria look reinvigorated, the three north African teams have the potential to go far, Zambia bring virtually the same squad that triumphed so memorably last year, and Angola, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa and even Cape Verde are capable of toppling anyone. This tournament is up for grabs.

Despite previous misadventures, the Ivorians are rightly fancied. Seventeen of their 23-man squad stomped through last year's tournament without conceding a goal until freezing on the big day and losing the final to Zambia in a shootout. It is hard to gauge how they will go this time.

The way they navigated their way past Senegal in the playoff suggested they are not about to crumble under pressure – the 2-0 second-leg win in Dakar was particularly impressive given the intensity of the occasion (which exploded into a riot when it became clear that the home side were not going to reverse their 4-2 first-leg defeat). But in the first leg there had been still signs of defensive slackness and those resurfaced in this week's friendly against Egypt before the Elephants eventually recorded another 4-2 win.

One of the newcomers since last year – the striker Lacina Traoré of Anzhi Makhachkala – was excellent in that match but one of the team's age-old attitude problems persists: Ivory Coast's lack of success in recent years has been partially down to a vaguely Manchester City-esque tendency to play ponderously by numbers and wait for one of their gifted individual to spark things up.

The manager Sabri Lamouchi has tried to inject urgency to unhinge opponents and help those individuals flourish but they still seem prone to lapsing into lethargy or fear. Which means they remain vulnerable to more dynamic, well-drilled teams. And there may be a couple of them in their group.

Tunisia, Togo and Algeria are the Ivorians' first opponents. Togo are as disorganised as ever, with the government interfering in Didier Six's squad selection and then interfering to convince Emmanuel Adebayor not to withdraw in protest at interfering. But Tunisia and, particularly, Algeria look much more formidable. Algeria have the talent to win the tournament for the first time since 1990. The Desert Foxes are defensively strong, and in a tournament in which several relatively unheralded talents look poised to earn wider acclaim, the Algerian strikers El Arbi Hillel Soudani (of Vitoria Guimaraes) and Islam Slimani (of the Algerian club CR Belouizdad) could stand out, especially if Valencia's Sofiane Feghouli continues providing first-class service. The Ivorians will not want to go into their final group game needing to beat Algeria, whose manager, Vahid Halilhodzic, used to be in charge of the Elephants before leaving and lamenting the Ivorian stars' "psychological" problems.

Tunisia could to be tough, too. Their manager, Sami Trabelsi, is still seeking the right formula to get the best out of his team and they struggled in the play-offs against Sierra Leone and also in their warmup games, but with the ingenious Youssef Msakni in their side they can never be written off.

Two of the most intriguing teams to watch will be Nigeria and Ghana. Both bring youngish squads with undoubted skills and motivation but uncertain cohesion. Stephen Keshi is still banking on Vincent Enyeama in goal and Joseph Yobo in defence but ahead of them there is a potentially thrilling attacking force including Victor Moses, Villarreal's Ikechukwu Uche, Spartak Moscow's Emmanuel Emenike and Lazio's Ogenyi Onazi. There is no need for Peter Odemwingie, Obafemi Martins or Shola Ameobi. The question is whether Keshi has had enough time to find a way to harness the mighty firepower. In the warmups the Super Eagles were at times disjointed, at times delightful.

Ghana's manager, James Kwesi Appiah, deserves praise for showing the gumption to omit the likes of Sulley Muntari and Andre Ayew and the risk of him regretting the absence of the latter, in particular, is lessened by the refulgent promise of Porto's Christian Atsu. Kwadwo Asamoah should orchestrate play in midfield, aided by Derek Boateng and Emmanuel Badu, while sturdy veterans (and the promising Mubarak Wakaso) man the defence and Asamoah Gyan gets another go at glory up front – and has vowed not to take any penalties.

It will be fascinating to watch Ghana against their first opponents, DR Congo, erstwhile habitués who are returning to the tournament for the first time since 2006. Much will depend on the form of the left winger Déo Kanda and the mercurial TP Mazembe trickster Trésor Mputu, plus the displays of the equally mercurial but slightly less tricky forwards Dieudonné Mbokani and Lomana LuaLua. The Congolese could challenge Ghana and Mali for qualification from Group B. Niger do not look strong enough to improve on last year's showing.

Group A could be anyone's. Rachid Taoussi has sought to mould Morocco into a reliably dangerous side following last year's flop. The manager has chosen to dispense with prodigious creative powers by overlooking the disruptive Adel Taraabt, the out-of-form oussine Kharja and the out-of-favour Mbarak Boussoufa so will be heavily reliant on Younès Belhanda to generate chances for the Fiorentina forward Mounir El Hamdaoui and Granada's Youssef El Arabi. Belhanda can be marvellous but has only flickered for Montpellier this season and the capacity of Liverpool's Oussama Assaidi to help out is difficult to assess given how little he has played recently.

South Africa's creativity has scarcely been helped by Steven Pienaar's decision to retire from international football just a few months ago but Bafana Bafana's chief problem has not so much been creating chances as taking them. They have mustered just seven goals in eight games under Gordon Igesund and with Katlego Mphela struggling to regain form after injury and the manager admitting his team have grown more nervous as the tournament approaches, their finishing has been getting worse.

There is a real risk of South Africa suffering another first-round elimination from a tournament they are hosting. Angola are strong and Cape Verde, who knocked out Cameroon en route to their first ever finals, are disciplined and tough, with the speedy forward Ryan Mendes and the marauding midfielder Marco Soares capable of piercing any defence.

While Nigeria represent the most obvious threat to Zambia in Group C, especially as Jonathan Pitroipa's injury troubles risk sabotaging Burkina Faso, Ethiopia will be interesting to watch. The Walias Antelopes have been absent from the finals for the past 30 years and in the last decade, in particular, they have been hindered by instability that has cost 14 managers their jobs, including one who was sacked for telling journalists that he had to chase cows off the pitch before training.

The latest incumbent, Sewnet Bishaw, has kept any ruminations about cattle to himself and concentrated on nurturing a young, mainly home-based side who have demonstrated their battling prowess by squeezing past Benin in the play-offs before fighting back from 5-3 down to eliminate Sudan.